If I recall, China had about 500 cases confirmed positive, when they shut down Wuhan on January 23. And by that point, the confirmed infection count ballooned up to 80,000; even after they aggressively mandated their national lockdown. And this was during the early days, when nobody knew anything about the virus. And early test kits gave a lot of false negatives.
With California at 1060, then I can only imagine where the final number will land. And New York has 5712 infected, and yet, they still haven’t shut down the state.
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Now, the following is likely incorrect, but this may give an general idea of the magnitude. But doing a basic extrapolation, China had a 160x multiplier, from the initial lockdown point, to get to 80,000 infected.
If we use that, then at this point, California might register about 169,000 infected. And New York, if they lock down now, might register 914,000 infected.
Sobering numbers indeed..
But these numbers are highly dependent on population density, mass transportation patterns, and social congregation scenarios. Wuhan has high speed trains, but California has Southwest planes. Car travel and ride sharing usage might be similar. So it’s unlikely the numbers are similar to compute.
At some point, the medical system will fail, and everyone will just give up, and we are now left to our own fate.
With California at 1060, then I can only imagine where the final number will land. And New York has 5712 infected, and yet, they still haven’t shut down the state.
====
Now, the following is likely incorrect, but this may give an general idea of the magnitude. But doing a basic extrapolation, China had a 160x multiplier, from the initial lockdown point, to get to 80,000 infected.
If we use that, then at this point, California might register about 169,000 infected. And New York, if they lock down now, might register 914,000 infected.
Sobering numbers indeed..
But these numbers are highly dependent on population density, mass transportation patterns, and social congregation scenarios. Wuhan has high speed trains, but California has Southwest planes. Car travel and ride sharing usage might be similar. So it’s unlikely the numbers are similar to compute.
At some point, the medical system will fail, and everyone will just give up, and we are now left to our own fate.