>Open standards tend to trump closed platforms over time.
The opposite is true, and what is happening to the Internet is another example. Telephone, Radio, and Film used to be open but they have since been cornered by cartels. Tim Wu explains this excellently in his book, "The Master Switch."
It seems ominous if you regard telephone, radio transmission, and the internet as three different things. The pattern appears to be that an innovation lands and is then co-opted by pre-existing powers, who find ways to cause its open nature to be less attractive and instead morph it into something closed and read-only.
However, if you view these things (and many others) are part of the same progression of the human species, things look quite a bit brighter.
John Walker (founder of Autodesk) called it the Digital Imprimatur over a decade ago. The scenario he predicted was off a bit in a few areas, but the general problem he describes - of rent seekers trying to turn the internet back into something closer to cable TV - is frighteningly close to what has been happening in the tech industry.
I will check out that book, thanks. But the history of the web shows how an open network killed the content silos of AOL, Prodigy, Compuserve, etc. Yes, now things seem to be swinging back, perhaps due to the popularity of mobile apps and poor user experience of the mobile web.
I believe this is the primary driver. We already have Facebook introducting "free limited Internet" to developing regions of India [0] and mobile carriers in the U.S. already allow certain apps to be excluded from data usage. The open Internet is not a guarantee, and the next generation of web users may not know the 'wild west' we did.
Facebook free zones are just ad supported ISPs, like NetZero of years ago. Until they actually block non-FB content, it is just grousing about gratis, not libre.
I don't think that's necessarily the natural direction- as you say, it's just that more powerful players are, in the case of the Internet, now able to push their influence until it results in a monopoly over information. What we are seeing is a result of the failure of our systems- I still believe that open standards will tend to trump closed platforms over time, if they are allowed to.
There is no "natural direction" because the systems, in this context, are not natural. The platforms will only remain open so long as we fight to keep them that way. We're not doing a very good job, either; the Internet is moving to a closed system very rapidly.
The opposite is true, and what is happening to the Internet is another example. Telephone, Radio, and Film used to be open but they have since been cornered by cartels. Tim Wu explains this excellently in his book, "The Master Switch."