I think computers are incredibly cheap compared to humans. These models and infrastructure to run them are going to only get more efficient in time. Right now we are still using (for the most part) entire hardware architectures mostly shoehorned from one purpose (graphics) into another. As purpose-built hardware becomes more prevalent and the SOTA starts to slow down I can't imagine a $100k hardware box not being able to handle a small team of developer's needs for many things.
I do think there will be a place for the top 20% of software engineers forever. But most people are not in that top 20%, and the quality when you get below average is not a linear progression. It will not be that difficult for AI generated code to beat the "bottom end" of the industry since tbh it's hard for me to tell the difference between LLM generated code and some of the shit I've seen over the years. I've ran across code written by folks who don't know what an array is more than once.
Most software is not built by MIT and Stanford grads making $500k/yr in the Valley. It's built by work-a-day programmers in the middle of nowhere making $80k/yr to keep some niche small business going with hyper-specific software that was first designed for Windows 95. Or stuff like making horribly designed Wordpress plugins. Or Shopify integrations. etc. etc.
I've also seen these small businesses totally held back by incompetent programmers, and despite their best efforts and huge amounts (for them!) of investment they can never seem to fix it. These types of enterprises are having AI run circles around their current engineering practices, even if it would make most FAANG engineers gasp in horror.
Either way it will certainly be interesting to watch! I just wish I was closer to retirement.
I think computers are incredibly cheap compared to humans. These models and infrastructure to run them are going to only get more efficient in time. Right now we are still using (for the most part) entire hardware architectures mostly shoehorned from one purpose (graphics) into another. As purpose-built hardware becomes more prevalent and the SOTA starts to slow down I can't imagine a $100k hardware box not being able to handle a small team of developer's needs for many things.
I do think there will be a place for the top 20% of software engineers forever. But most people are not in that top 20%, and the quality when you get below average is not a linear progression. It will not be that difficult for AI generated code to beat the "bottom end" of the industry since tbh it's hard for me to tell the difference between LLM generated code and some of the shit I've seen over the years. I've ran across code written by folks who don't know what an array is more than once.
Most software is not built by MIT and Stanford grads making $500k/yr in the Valley. It's built by work-a-day programmers in the middle of nowhere making $80k/yr to keep some niche small business going with hyper-specific software that was first designed for Windows 95. Or stuff like making horribly designed Wordpress plugins. Or Shopify integrations. etc. etc.
I've also seen these small businesses totally held back by incompetent programmers, and despite their best efforts and huge amounts (for them!) of investment they can never seem to fix it. These types of enterprises are having AI run circles around their current engineering practices, even if it would make most FAANG engineers gasp in horror.
Either way it will certainly be interesting to watch! I just wish I was closer to retirement.